Dear Members of Congress,
Burhan told reporters today that he staged a coup for the good of the country. According to an Aljazeera article, Burhan said:
“The dangers we witnessed last week could have led the country into civil war,” al-Burhan said, an apparent reference to demonstrations against the prospect of a coup. “We only wanted to correct the course to a transition,” he said. “We had promised the people of Sudan and the entire world. We will protect this transition.”
As military representatives of the old regime, Burhan and Hemedti (his Deputy) are close colleagues of Bashir, and they know the playbook to stay in power.
1) Create a problem to solve a problem: manipulation 101
Bashir would harm people and then sometimes allow aid into the country. The world would rejoice, Bashir would get credit, and the international community would avoid applying any real pressure to maintain the little access it had been granted. Bashir remained in power and the people continued to suffer.
This time, the play is carried out in a couple of ways, one more subtle than the other. The more obvious way is to create the divisions that would then justify Burhan's "correction" to avoid civil war. The less obvious way is to use members of the old regime still within the government (they didn't disappear overnight) to block progress and to create disatisfaction with the transitional government. Again, creating this supposed need for "correction." As expected, the transitional government has problems; however, no problem justified the actions of Burhan and Hemedti. They are hoping the international community will buy their story. Please do not.
2) Divide and rule: a little money and a few promises go a long way
This play seems to always work and it means that millions of Sudanese have died and been displaced. Hemedti is hoping the gold he has stolen talks. But today, I heard an inspiring Sudanese youth say, "We have different skin tones and languages, but we are united under one banner - our love for our country, our love for Sudan." Stand beside these young people, the largest demographic in Sudan, who are risking their lives to peacefully protest. Support their vision of a Sudan where their diversity is celebrated rather than used as a weapon of war.
3) Sign but never honor agreements: the international community will lose interest or prioritize its own interests
In 1992, Sudan's former Vice President, Abdel Alier, wrote a book titled, Southern Sudan: Too Many Agreements Dishonored, in reference to the many promises made under pressure by the international community to address the grievances of the people of southern Sudan. Inevitably, the pressure would wane, allowing the regime to disregard its promises and maintain the status quo. We saw this with the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and with multiple agreements in the marginalized areas. Without a different approach, we will see it again with the current Political Agreement and the Juba Peace Agreement.
The U.S. has many serious issues to grapple with and likely some conflicting interests, but ultimately, U.S. interests are best served by supporting the people of Sudan in acheiving genuine democratic transformation. The first step is assigning full-time senior level diplomats to Sudan. Senator Biden said it best in a 2007 hearing on Darfur: U.S. policy on Sudan requires “a comprehensive approach to what is a complex problem…that will require the kind of resources, coordination, and sustained engagement at the highest levels.” The U.S. has spent a lot of money in aid over the years, paying for, in part, its own neglect and mismanagement. The people of Sudan have paid an even higher price. The U.S. needs to get it right this time.
4) The charm offensive: tell them what they want to hear in the way they want to hear it
It never takes long for the regime to neutralize the international community. They are charming, sophisticated and fairly organized. They are much easier to deal with than a group of revolutionaries who must overcome the effects of the above referenced practice of divide and rule. The regime has been at this game for decades and they know the international community wants to move on and is willing to sacrifice ideals for "stability". The people of Sudan deserve better. Their remarkable courage, sacrifices and achievements to overcome tyranny for freedom, peace and justice should resonate in our hearts. The transition will not be easy. We can stick with the people of Sudan anyway.
Thank you for taking time to read through these thoughts. It has been an honor for me to learn from the people of Sudan over the years, and I hope the lessons they have taught me will be of use to you.
Best regards,
Esther Sprague
Sudan Unlimited
10.27.21
